Archive for October 2011

Batch size and Fallacy of composition

I receive many Advertising mails in weekends.
Also I receive many questionaire emails and advertising emails.

Car dealers, retailers and furnishing dealers may want us to visit in weekends.
Other questionaire or advertising emails are meant to be read in weekends when people are not busy.
This concept itself is right.

However, the reader’s time is limited.
Everybody has 24 hours a day, and does not spend all day to read mails.
The time to read mails should be limited.
Someone wants to spend his/her time for hobby and together with his/her family rather than reading mails.
Then amount of unread mails can be discarded.

A sender tends to send mails in weekends when people may have much time to read.
However everyone does do the same action, amount of mails are delivered at once and discarded unread.
This controversial situation is called “Fallacy of composition”.

The way to be paid attention more in that situation is to take other actions than others.
You may send mails in another day while other send in weekends.
Your mail can be read more while a reader has no other many advertising mails.

There is a theory called TOC, or Theory of constraints.
The theory is for optimizing output with resolving a bottle neck if there is a constrain, or a bottle nect in a sequential model.
One of ways to resolve a bottle neck is to minimize a batch size.
It may help a model to be flexible when a bottle neck has less capacity.

In my case the bottle neck is the limited time to read advertising mails.
Amount of advertising mails mean a large batch size flows to a reader.
To minimize a batch size, or sending advertising mails in a day other mails are not sent, may resolve a bottle neck.